Hafrok

Changle Outer-Sea I (South)

Offshore-wind block won in the Fujian 2023 first-batch provincial competitive allocation (竞配).

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SHSDIC Power Holdings — 51% ◆
ZHZhongmin Energy — 49% ◆
Location
China
Taiwan Strait
Verification
4/5 fields verified
4 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆verified∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 314 MW ◆ Turbines 17 ◆
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination Fujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) · 2023 ·
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2028 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈77% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 14.1% (conditional on completion) 2028: 28.0% (conditional on completion) 2029: 22.7% (conditional on completion) 2030: 14.6% (conditional on completion) 2031: 8.7% (conditional on completion) 2032: 5.1% (conditional on completion) 2033: 3.1% (conditional on completion) 2034: 1.8% (conditional on completion) 2035: 1.1% (conditional on completion) 2036: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202828%EXPECTED20292030203120322033203420352036
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202714.1%
2028 (expected)28.0%
202922.7%
203014.6%
20318.7%
20325.1%
20333.1%
20341.8%
20351.1%
20360.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2028; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026, the slower quarter not until 2029.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2026–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈77%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2024’25’26’27’28Fujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) — awarded to Fujian Investment Development Group + SPICFujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) Jul 2023 · auction recordView the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 30 Nov 2024 ◆Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expectedFujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) — awarded to Fujian Investment Development Group + SPIC 2023-07 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDTODAYFujian Investment Development Group + SPIC Fujian Investment Devel… Fujian Investment Devel… not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedSDIC Power Holdings — 51% today · developer SDIC Power Holdings SDIC Power Holdings 51%Zhongmin Energy — 49% today · investor Zhongmin Energy Zhongmin Energy 49%Fujian Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation 2023 — first batch (福建竞配) — awarded to Fujian Investment Development Group + SPIC Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Sources & verification

4/5 fields verified · rests on 4 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[2]
Fujian DRC (福建省发改委)2023-06◆ Fujian 2023 offshore wind market-based c…
“长乐B区（调整）10万千瓦、长乐外海I区（南）30万千瓦、长乐外海J区65万千瓦、长乐外海K区55万千瓦、莆田湄洲湾外海40万千瓦，共5个场址、200万千瓦。”
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
[3]
Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission2024-11-30◆ Approval of the Changle Outer-Sea Area I…
“三、项目主要建设内容及建设规模：建设总装机容量314兆瓦，建设内容包括17台海上风电机组、66千伏场内海缆敷设、施工辅助工程等。项目与长乐海域其他海上风电项目〔包括长乐外海D、E区，长乐外海I区（北），长乐外海J区，长乐外海K区等〕实施集中统一送出，集中统一送出工程项目及本项目配套的储能项目另行核准（备案）。 四、项目总投资25.97亿元，其中项目资本金占总投资的比例为20%，由项目单位出资，其余…”
supportsdeveloperinvestorConsentTurbinesTotal capacity+1 more
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[4]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press1
[1]
in-en.com (reporting Fujian DRC result 公示)2023-07◆ Fujian 2023 offshore wind competitive al…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗