Ventos de São Francisco
Announced Atlantic-coast complex, sponsor undisclosed.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
MGMonex Geracao de Energia S.A. — 100% ◆
Location
BrazilSouthwest Atlantic
Technology
Capacity
2,955 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed Environmental licence application · 2022-09 ◆
Water depth
8–17 m ≈
Wind speed
8.6 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
—
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
Chance of delivery
≈11%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with no delivery record yet, a very large build, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20.0% |
| 2031 | 20.0% |
| 2032 | 20.0% |
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈11%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
2/9 fields verified · rests on 6 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[5]
IBAMA (Diretoria de Licenciamento Ambiental)2025-03-10◆ Complexos Eolicos Offshore - projetos co…
“Table 'Complexos Eolicos Offshore - projetos com processo de licenciamento ambiental tramitando no Ibama' (atualizado em 10/03/2025): CE-20 - Ventos de Sao Francisco. Empreendedor: MONEX GERACAO DE EN…”
supportsoperatorSite rights
[6]
IBAMA (Diretoria de Licenciamento Ambiental)2026-02-27◆ Complexos Eolicos Offshore - projetos co…
“'COMPLEXOS EOLICOS OFFSHORE - PROJETOS COM PROCESSO DE LICENCIAMENTO AMBIENTAL TRAMITANDO NO IBAMA - Atualizado em 27/02/2026' (59 dockets. 134.255 MW). [Docket CE-20 - Ventos de Sao Francisco (proces…”
supportsStatus note
Trade press4
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]