Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 3 (Fairybank)
Third and final lot of Belgium's 3.5 GW Princess Elisabeth Zone (PEZ), designated Fairybank. Capacity range 1,225-1,400 MW per Royal Decree.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
BelgiumNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,400 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Princess Elisabeth Zone — Lot 3 (PE III, Fairybank) ∴
Water depth
18–35 m ≈
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
No agreement ◇
Connection
Connection via Modular Offshore Grid 2 (Princess Elisabeth … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈60%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 2033 (held since 2026-04-15, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: BE-PEZ-LOT-1
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2027 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2029 Q3), then build time on top gives 2032 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈60%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Announced COD: held (announced 2033, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Belgian domain concession via competitive tender (not yet launched for Lot 3). Winning bidder will receive a two-sided contract for difference (CfD) lasting 20 years per Royal Decree. Strike price to be proposed by bidder. Tender for Lots 2 and 3 originally expected 2026-2028; no date announced as of June 2026. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Princess Elisabeth Zone — Lot 3 (PE III, Fairybank) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Construction ports
PortPort of Ostend ◇
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 3
HVDC systemNautilus UK Converter (Isle of Grain)·1400 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2035
HVDC systemPrincess Elisabeth Island HVDC (Offshore)·2000 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2033
HVDC systemPrincess Elisabeth Island HVDC (Onshore)·2000 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2033
HVDC systemNautilus Interconnector (Belgium — PEI side)·1400 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2032
Export & onshore
Export cableNautilus Interconnector Cable (Belgium — UK)·HVDC subsea · planned · to Isle of Grain, Kent, UK
Onshore connectionStevin Substation Extension (Princess Elisabeth Island)·380 (station); 220 AC PEI feed per EIB kV · under construction · also serves Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 1 (Noordhinder Noord), Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 2 (Noordhinder Zuid)
Onshore connectionIzegem Substation (Ventilus)·380 kV · planning · also serves Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 1 (Noordhinder Noord), Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 2 (Noordhinder Zuid)
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
1/14 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[4]
Elia (Belgian TSO)2026-06-16
“Princess Elisabeth Island is the world's first artificial energy island, located 45 km off the Belgian coast. The island will serve as an electricity hub bundling cables from wind farms in the Princes…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[9]
Ocean Winds2024-07-12◆ Eneco ocean winds otary form strategic c…
“All offshore wind farms are located into areas that will allow for bottom fixed technology.”
supportsFoundation
Auction pipeline1
[10]
FPS Economy (Belgium)2026◆ be-fps-offshore-tenders
FPS Economy — PE III lot planned; no tender date announced.
supportsPrincess Elisabeth Zone — Lot 3 (PE III, Fairybank)
Trade press7
[1]
FPS Economy (Belgian Federal Public Service Economy)2026-06-16◆ Belgium organisation of offshore tenders
"No date has been announced yet for the publication of the tender for Lot 2." "No date has been announced yet for the publication of the tender for Lot 3." For Lot 1: "On 2 July 2025, the Minister of …
supportsConsentCommercial operationCOD historyport
[2]
Osborne Clarke LLP (legal commentary on Royal Decree)2023◆ Belgium is set for competitive tenders f…
"The offshore area is divided into three zones with a maximum installed capacity of 700 megawatts (MW), 1,225-1,400 MW, and 1,225-1,400 MW respectively for the three zones: Noordhinder North, Noordhin…
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetailStatusConnection point+1 more
[3]
A&O Shearman LLP (legal commentary on tender principles)2023
"Lots 2 & 3: 1,225-1,400 MW each. Grid connection: onshore to Boucle du Hainaut. Second & Third Tenders: Launch: 2026. Commissioning: 2030 (contingent on Boucle du Hainaut and MOG II finalization)." "…
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetailStatusConnection point
[5]
Loyens & Loeff (law firm commentary on Royal Decree amendments)2026-04-17◆ Belgium offshore wind tender amendment a…
“Proposed amendments to the Royal Decree of 3 June 2024 were published on 17 April 2026, up for consultation until 30 April 2026. Construction timeline extended to 60 months (from 48 months). Minister …”
supportsStatusConnection point
[6]
[7]
[8]