Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 1 (Noordhinder Noord)
First lot of Belgium's Princess Elisabeth Zone (PEZ), designated Noordhinder Noord.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
BelgiumNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
700 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Princess Elisabeth Zone — Lot 1 (PE I, Noordhinder Noord) ∴
Water depth
21–39 m ≈
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
No agreement ◇
Connection
Connection via Modular Offshore Grid 2 (Princess Elisabeth … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2031 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2033 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2033
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2031; Hafrok expects 2033 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈56%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2032 | 14.1% |
| 2033 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2034 | 22.7% |
| 2035 | 14.6% |
| 2036 | 8.7% |
| 2037 | 5.1% |
| 2038 | 3.1% |
| 2039 | 1.8% |
| 2040 | 1.1% |
| 2041 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2033 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: BE-PEZ-LOT-1
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2027 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2029 Q3), then build time on top gives 2032 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2033, likely range 2033–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈56%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Belgian domain concession tender cancelled 2 July 2025 by Minister Bihet; Royal Decree amendments published 17 April 2026 (consultation closed 30 April 2026) for a price-based relaunch. No award made. Tender award expected H2 2026 at earliest. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Princess Elisabeth Zone — Lot 1 (PE I, Noordhinder Noord) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2031
Construction ports
PortPort of Ostend ◇assembly
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 2
HVDC systemNautilus UK Converter (Isle of Grain)·1400 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2035
HVDC systemNautilus Interconnector (Belgium — PEI side)·1400 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2032
Export & onshore
Export cableNautilus Interconnector Cable (Belgium — UK)·HVDC subsea · planned · to Isle of Grain, Kent, UK
Onshore connectionStevin Substation Extension (Princess Elisabeth Island)·380 (station); 220 AC PEI feed per EIB kV · under construction · also serves Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 2 (Noordhinder Zuid), Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 3 (Fairybank)
Onshore connectionIzegem Substation (Ventilus)·380 kV · planning · also serves Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 2 (Noordhinder Zuid), Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 3 (Fairybank)
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
1/14 fields verified · rests on 10 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[5]
Elia (Belgian TSO)2026-06-16
“Princess Elisabeth Island is the world's first artificial energy island, located 45 km off the Belgian coast. The island will serve as an electricity hub bundling cables from wind farms in the Princes…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[9]
Ocean Winds2024-07-12◆ Eneco ocean winds otary form strategic c…
“All offshore wind farms are located into areas that will allow for bottom fixed technology.”
supportsFoundation
Financier1
[4]
European Investment Bank2025-03-05
“Princess Elisabeth Zone Lot 1 Offshore Wind Farm — approximately 700 MW, Belgium. "An offshore wind installation being built in the first plot of the Princess Elisabeth Zone, featuring inter-array und…”
supportsTotal capacity
Auction pipeline1
[10]
FPS Economy (Belgium)2026◆ be-fps-offshore-tenders
FPS Economy — PE I tender cancelled 2 Jul 2025; to be relaunched 2026; no lot awarded.
supportsPrincess Elisabeth Zone — Lot 1 (PE I, Noordhinder Noord)
Trade press6
[1]
[2]
FPS Economy (Belgian Federal Public Service Economy)2026-06-16◆ Belgium organisation of offshore tenders
"On 2 July 2025, the Minister of Energy Mathieu Bihet decided to cancel the ongoing offshore tender for plot PE I." Relaunch planned for spring 2026 following legal review. Flexible connection approve…
supportsConsentCommercial operationMechanismDetailStatus+3 more
[3]
Loyens & Loeff (law firm commentary on Royal Decree amendments)2026-04-17◆ Belgium offshore wind tender amendment a…
“Proposed amendments to the Royal Decree of 3 June 2024 were published on 17 April 2026, up for consultation until 30 April 2026. The updated framework introduces a "lowest cost takes all" award criter…”
supportsMechanismDetailStatusConnection point
[6]
[7]
[8]