Bunbury Offshore Wind North
Feasibility-licence holder in Australia's offshore-wind seabed-licensing regime (Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Act 2021).
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
BOBunbury Offshore Wind Farm Pty Ltd — 100% ◆
Location
AustraliaSoutheast Indian Ocean
Technology
Capacity
—
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Bunbury (Indian Ocean) Offshore Wind Zone — feasibility licences · 2026 ·
Wind speed
9.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈60%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.1% |
| 2034 (expected) | 28.0% |
| 2035 | 22.7% |
| 2036 | 14.6% |
| 2037 | 8.7% |
| 2038 | 5.1% |
| 2039 | 3.1% |
| 2040 | 1.8% |
| 2041 | 1.1% |
| 2042 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: AU-VICTORIA-OFFTAKE-1
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2028 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2030 Q3), then build time on top gives 2033 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2039 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈60%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2026-01
Bunbury (Indian Ocean) Offshore Wind Zone — feasibility licences
- Awarded to
- Oceanex Energy / EDF Power Solutions
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (9 Sep 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Victoria Offshore Wind Auction — Round 1 (CfD + availability payment) ◇
RFP OPENED 26 August 2026 for an initial 2 GW (postponed about a year from the planned September 2025). The Minister for Energy and Resources opened the Request for Proposal process that day; the auction closes August 2027 and contracts are expected to be awarded in 2028. expected_date tracks the AWARD (the point at which the round graduates to the settled record), not the opening — hence 2028, at the year precision the source states. Supersedes the January 2026 press reading that put contract award "later in 2026"; that caveat is now discharged by an official document.
Installation how the build is going · from satellite counts and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
nothing to count yet: the satellite tracker begins when offshore construction does
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
1/4 fields verified · rests on 5 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[3]
Offshore Infrastructure Registrar (NEATS Public Portal, NOPTA)2026-08-22◆ Register of Offshore Infrastructure Lice…
“Register of Offshore Infrastructure Licences: FL-014, Feasibility Licence, status Active. Project name: Bunbury Offshore Wind Project - Northern Area. Licence holder: Bunbury Offshore Wind Farm Pty Lt…”
supportsoperator
Operator1
[4]
EDF power solutions Australia2026-08-22◆ Offshore Wind - EDF power solutions Aust…
“The Bunbury Offshore Wind Project is a 1,500 MW offshore wind project being developed by EDF power solutions Australia in the Indian Ocean off the Bunbury region. ... The project's Feasibility Licence…”
supports↳ parents
Auction pipeline1
[5]
Victorian Government (Premier's media centre)2026-08-26◆ premier-vic-rfp-open-2026-08
Minister for Energy and Resources Jaclyn Symes today opened the Request for Proposal process for Victoria's first two gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind. ... Contracts are expected to be integrated into …
supportsVictoria Offshore Wind Auction — Round 1 (CfD + availability payment)
Trade press2
[1]
Offshore Wind (offshorewind.biz)2026-01◆ Australia awards final feasibility licen…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[2]